“Contract activity for pending home sales fell after a surge of activity in preceding months to beat the original deadline for the first-time home buyer tax credit but remains comfortably above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 16.0 percent to 96.0 from an upwardly revised 114.3 in October, but is 15.5 percent higher than November 2008 when it was 83.1.”
Analysts are forecasting a slow winter for home sales. In addition to the bitterly cold weather much of the nation is encountering this season, experts feel the extended tax credits and slightly higher interest rates will keep home sales (and prices) on ice. Sales are expected to come back to life next spring.
According to the National Association of Realtors, November home sales skyrocketed 7.4 percent. Analysts were predicting an increase of 2.9 percent. The housing tax credits are credited with the spike in sales.
There are 129 days until the housing tax credits run out. For more details about the housing tax credits, visit our Housing Tax Credit page.
DHW asks: Do you think homes sales will continue to exceed expectations?
Home price inched up in September, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index of major cities, released on Tuesday, inched up 0.3 percent. The seasonally adjusted reading in September was 144.96. But the index looked weaker than in months past, with prices increasing month-over-month in only 11 metro areas (the index looks at 20 cities).
Year-over-year
Prices were down 9.4 percent from last year, the smallest year-over-year decline since January 2008.
With unemployment and foreclosures continuing to hit record numbers, many experts feel this positive movement is not sustainable.
DHW asks: Do you think the housing market has hit bottom?
“Home sales far exceeded expectations last month, surging to the highest level in 2 1/2 years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of an expiring tax credit.
The National Association of Realtors said Monday that home resales rose 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.1 million in October, from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September.”
A survey released last week by Move.com, a real estate website, shows 1 in 5 Americans plan on purchasing a home within the next year. The survey also revealed these buyers are most likely to be 34 years of age or younger and live in the South or West.
It should be noted this survey was taken before the housing tax credit extensions were announced.
DHW asks: Do you intend to buy a home within the next year?
The Capital published an intriguing article addressing the potential side-effects of expanding the housing tax credits beyond first time homebuyers. The article raises some fair questions with regard to existing homes needing to be liquidated so that current homeowners can take advantage of the housing tax credits now afforded to them. The Capital article focuses on housing inventory in D.C. and its surrounding area. However, this potential side-effect could present itself in other parts of the country.
DHW asks: Do you think expanding the housing tax credits beyond first time homebuyers will increase housing inventories?
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, predicted on Friday that home prices will rise in 2010. If his prediction holds true, home prices will see their first increase in four years.
Yun pointed to the current price-income ratio of 2.4 as evidence of pent-up demand in the market. The price-income ratio accelerated from a norm of 2.6 in 1984-2001 to 3.3 in 2005. This means the price-income ratio has dipped below its pre-bubble rate.
The housing tax credit extension is also seen as a contributing factor to rising homes prices next year.
DHW asks: Do you think home prices will rise in 2010?
U.S. foreclosures sank for a third consecutive month in October, down 3% from the previous month. However, many feel this trend will not continue. Foreclosure notices were curtailed in many states due to temporary, legislative intervention. CNBC reported Nevada foreclosures “dropped 26 percent from the previous month because of new legislation requiring mediation before initiating foreclosure proceedings.” Illinois had similar legislation, but foreclosure notices skyrocketed there 56% in October from the previous month.